🔗 Share this article Moving from Reluctant Respect to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader. A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for this long.” Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict. A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. A Network Unravels For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington. Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems. Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes. “The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”
A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York. Public Fury, Private Calculations In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for this long.” Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict. A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote. A Network Unravels For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington. Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems. Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes. “The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”