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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest shock.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions fading and recent underperformers rising together. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the runaway choice. But this is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still